The Energy Transition: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint
In the energy transition, short sighted policies lead to collapse. Like a runner who neglects nutrition, training and sleep, any nation that neglects the three core pillars of energy is doomed to fail
As of late, I believe I have been bitten by the running bug. Throughout my hours on the treadmill or the mucky, windy roads of Monaghan, I have found that there is something profoundly revealing about long distance running, about that willingness to subject yourself to the suffering of the road, the rhythm of your breath and the relentless pounding of your feet against the tarmac. In its purest sense, it demands discipline, foresight and resilience. It leaves little room for tomfoolery, and will, sooner or later, punish those who don’t prepare.
I too have realised that it is not just the body that runs, it is the mind, the will, the very internal structure of one’s being that propels them forward. In the same way, a nation does not simply have an energy sector, it is the energy sector. Energy is the backbone of civilisation itself, and as such, it is the indispensable fuel of progress. If a nation mismanages its energy sources, policies or transmission systems… if it stumbles or falters… then it is only a matter of time before it is overtaken by its competitors.
The Three Pillars
Any competent running programme is built upon three foundational pillars, with those namely being, nutrition, training and sleep. These are the non-negotiables. They are the bedrock of performance and are as sure as the laws of physics if one aims to succeed as a runner.
In the realm of energy, these are akin to the energy sources, transmission systems and policies put forth by any given nation. If any one of these falters, the entire system collapses. Of course, it will not necessarily be in an explosive, apocalyptic fashion, but instead, in a slow, grinding, inevitable decline. A runner can keep moving forward even with an injury, but they do so at cost.
Frankly, the same is true for nations who refuse to acknowledge their energy shortcomings.
The Fuel of Nations: Nutrition
As any runner knows, you do not embark on a marathon without preparation. The night before a race, a seasoned athlete will consume a carbohydrate rich meal because they understand the simple, brutal truth that fuel matters. If inadequately fueled, well, they may just hit the infamous ‘wall’… which is every runner’s nightmare.
Similarly, running a modern economy without stable, abundant and on-demand energy sources, is akin to expecting an athlete to perform on an empty stomach. It is delusional.
And yet, we witness nations who, believing they are impervious to the laws of nature, embrace energy policies which undermine their energy security. Germany, for instance, invested heavily in wind and solar energy making them the largest sources of electricity in the country. However, they fell victim to the infamous ‘Dunkelflaute’… those cold, windless days where the sun does not shine, the wind does not blow, and the fragility of their energy strategy is laid bare for all to see.
It is not enough to hope that the wind will blow, nor to pray for sunlight.
Any nation, particularly industrious ones such as Germany, require dispatchable, reliable power. This power must be available when needed, not when nature whimsically decides to provide it.
In any race, underfuelling is foolish. And is it not true too, that foolish nations do not lead, but follow?
The Power of Transmission: Training
A runner cannot merely consume fuel and suddenly expect to run a marathon the next day. No, they must train their body to use this fuel efficiently. They must condition their muscles, their cardiovascular system, their biomechanics, because raw energy alone is meaningless if it cannot be properly harnessed.
Likewise, energy production without resilient transmission systems is but a chasing after the wind.
Look at Storm Eowyn, which left over a million people on my emerald isle without power for over a week in the worst of cases. Look at California’s aging energy infrastructure which has become a fire hazard in and of itself.
We can generate all the electricity we want, and we can push for electrification too, but if we lack the means to distribute it efficiently and safely, then we are but sprinting toward disaster.
If nations are truly serious about electrification, we need a transmission network that is hardened, future proof and, most importantly, resilient. Anything less is but a concession to mediocrity.
The Bedrock of Policy: Sleep
And finally, we come to sleep. Sleep should not be perceived as a luxury for the few, but as nothing less than the very foundation upon which all training is built. Without adequate recovery, no amount of good nutrition nor rigorous training will yield results.
Similarly, energy policy is the bedrock of a nation’s energy future. And right now, energy policy is our Achilles’ heel.
Nuclear power was once the very foundation of clean, reliable energy in the latter half of the 20th century. However now, it is nothing more than a bureaucratic nightmare.
How can it be that in the golden age of nuclear, plants were built quickly and affordably, yet today, all we see are skyrocketing costs and a plethora of regulatory delays?
Currently, the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant in Somerset, UK, is over budget, with costs expected to rise over £46 billion. The USA is projected to no longer be the leader in nuclear power generation, as China, at present, has 23 plants under construction. Not only that, but they too are leading in the latest Gen IV technologies, from molten salt to thorium, we the West are losing our scientific edge.
How has this happened? It is not physics that has changed. It is not engineering that has become less effective. It is policy that has rendered nuclear unviable.
However, there are glimmers of hope over the Western horizon. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright in the US, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the UK have recognised the truth. Having vowed to streamline nuclear policy, I can only hope that the bureaucratic shackles are broken and common sense is restored to the energy debate.
It is undoubtedly, a step in the right direction, however, it must not be another case of talk with no action.
Running the Race, Not Talking the Talk
A runner can discuss their latest training programme all day. They can read reviews on the latest and greatest running shoes, watch documentaries about elite marathoners and debate ad infinitum about ideal pacing strategies. But, none of that matters if they do not actually lace up their shoes and hit the road.
So too, nations can debate energy policy indefinitely. They can publish white papers, convene their think tanks and engage in grand sweeping rhetoric all they want, but it wouldn’t matter at all if they do not implement the measures which would ensure a stable, reliable and pragmatic energy future.
This, is not a sprint. This, is not a game. This, is a marathon.
And, nations who fail to prepare… nations who sacrifice their energy security upon the altar of ideology… will find themselves limping along, while their competitors surge ahead.
In the EU alone, our productivity is plummeting, our spirit of innovation is dying and our top companies are stagnating. For how much longer can we continue on this downward spiral? If we do not get our act together, tighten our shoe laces and secure our energy security, frankly, I fear the clock will strike all too soon.
Without a change in our current trajectory, the rich history of invention and innovation which once marked the European way of life will become all but a distant memory. Have we simply run out steam?
We must realise that the race already began, a long long time ago, in the age of the Industrial Revolution, and it seems as though, we, the West, are losing our lead. So, the final question I put forth is this: Who will have the endurance to finish the race?
This article was written by David, feel free to connect with me on LinkedIn to keep in touch